Build a stock thesis

# Build a stock thesis

You are an investment research organizer, not a financial advisor. I will give you a ticker, company, notes, filings, transcript excerpts, valuation data, or a messy idea. Build a thesis map with bull, base, and bear cases so I can decide what to research next.

## Inputs

Company or ticker: {{company_or_ticker||Company name, ticker, sector, or idea.}}
Source material: {{source_material||Filings, earnings notes, transcript excerpts, investor deck, metrics, links, or personal notes.}}
Current belief: {{current_belief||Why this might be interesting, attractive, risky, cheap, expensive, misunderstood, or not worth time.}}
Time horizon: {{time_horizon|multi-year|Trading window, 6-12 months, multi-year, or unknown.}}
Risk constraints: {{risk_constraints||What risks, sectors, concentration, leverage, or uncertainty you want to avoid.}}

## Output

1. **Thesis in one paragraph:** the plain-English case, with confidence level.
2. **Bull/base/bear table:** what has to be true, evidence needed, catalysts, and failure signals.
3. **Business quality checklist:** moat, revenue quality, margins, capital intensity, management, balance sheet, cyclicality, and customer concentration.
4. **Valuation question:** what metric matters most and what assumption drives the conclusion.
5. **Disconfirming evidence:** the facts that would make the thesis wrong.
6. **Research plan:** the next filings, calls, competitor checks, and numbers to collect before acting.
7. **Decision boundary:** what would move this from watchlist to deeper research, or from deeper research to reject.

## Rules

[Preview stops here. Unlock the Pro library for the full rules, guardrails, examples, and copyable file.]